The essential reference for every competitive race in American politics.
In competitive swimming, a heat sheet is the document handed out before a meet that lists every race, every competitor, their seed times, and their lane assignments. It's the essential reference -- a compact, data-rich summary of who's racing, where they stand, and what to expect.
That's exactly what we aim to be for American politics: the essential reference for every competitive race, who's running, where they stand, and what to watch for.
The name also works on its own terms -- “heat” implies intensity, competition, and pressure; “sheet” implies a reference document, a data source, a ratings page. You don't need to know anything about swimming for the name to land.
What We Do
The Heat Sheet is a nonpartisan political analysis publication. We rate races with explicit probabilities, grade forecasters on calibration, score decision desks on election night, and evaluate prediction markets on health and reliability. Every claim is backed by data. Every projection is scored after the fact.
Our first project, Your Local Market, tackles something nobody else is doing -- grading every House, gubernatorial, and Senate prediction market daily on volume, open interest, and spreads. It lives under The Spread, our prediction market analysis vertical -- where we track liquidity, explain what the prices mean, and separate signal from noise.
Who We Are
A group of high school students who love data and politics. We believe you don't need a newsroom budget to do election forecasting well -- just rigor, transparency, and a willingness to be graded on your own predictions.
Contact
Questions, tips, or partnership inquiries: ryan@theheatsheet.com