Ohio's 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests of the cycle. And right now, the three major signal sources can't agree on what's going to happen.
The Three Signals
Prediction Markets (Kalshi): 65% Republican. The market is pricing in a comfortable but not dominant GOP advantage. But this market currently has thin liquidity and a wide bid-ask spread — our market health model gives it a C+ grade. The adjusted probability, correcting for spread and volume, is closer to 60%.
Expert Ratings (Cook Political Report): Lean Republican. Cook moved this race from Toss Up to Lean R after the filing deadline passed without a top-tier Democratic recruit. Their reasoning emphasizes the state's rightward drift and the incumbency advantage.
Fundamentals: Toss Up. Ohio's PVI has shifted right, but midterm dynamics typically favor the party out of power. Presidential approval is underwater, and generic ballot polling shows a tight national environment. A fundamentals-only model puts this race at roughly 50-50.
Where We Come Down
The gap between markets and fundamentals is significant — about 10-15 points of implied probability. We think the truth is closer to the middle.
Cook's Lean R feels directionally right but understates the uncertainty. Markets are overweighting the state's partisan lean and not sufficiently pricing in the midterm penalty. The fundamentals model is probably too bullish on Democrats because it hasn't fully incorporated candidate quality differentials.
Our rating: Lean R, 55-60% Republican win probability.
We'll update this as the race develops. That's the point of The Spread — it's a living analysis, not a static prediction.