If you've ever taken a prediction market number at face value -- say, 62% for a Senate candidate in Iowa -- you've probably been misled. A 62% backed by $400,000 in open interest and a one-cent spread is a fundamentally different signal than a 62% in a market with $800 and a spread you could drive a truck through.
Every day, we pull data from Kalshi and grade every House, Senate, and gubernatorial market on three dimensions: volume (how actively the market trades), spread (how tight the bid-ask gap is), and open interest (how much capital is at stake). These roll up into a single letter grade, A through F.
- A -- Deep, active, tight. The price is a genuine signal.
- B -- Solid with minor weaknesses. Trustworthy with a grain of salt.
- C -- Mediocre. Directionally useful, not gospel.
- D -- Thin and unreliable. More decorative than informative.
- F -- Essentially no real market. The number is close to meaningless.
This is not a forecast. We're grading the thermometer, not predicting the weather. The table below updates daily.