Prediction Markets·2026 Midterms·The Spread

Your Local Market

Not all prediction markets are created equal. We grade every House, gubernatorial, and Senate market daily on volume, spreads, and open interest -- so you know which prices to trust.

A red food truck labeled Fresh Market Kalshi, loaded with produce

Prediction markets are increasingly cited as if every price is equally meaningful -- but a 62% backed by deep liquidity is a fundamentally different signal than a 62% in a market nobody's trading. We pull data from Kalshi every day and score each race on three dimensions -- trading volume, bid-ask spread, and open interest -- then roll those into a single letter grade, A through F. Click any column header to sort. Click a race to visit the market on Kalshi.

Race	Grade▲	Score	Vol	Spread	OI
Alaska	A	94	89	100	89
Ohio	A	84	86	80	89
Iowa	A	82	82	80	85
Texas	A	100	99	100	99
Maine	A	95	91	100	89
Nebraska	A	95	89	100	93
Georgia	A	93	89	100	82
Michigan	A	85	74	100	69
North Carolina	A	86	91	80	89
New Hampshire	B	74	73	80	60
Minnesota	B	68	63	73	68
Florida	B	77	58	100	61
Kentucky	B	69	70	73	59
New Mexico	B	71	44	100	51
Kansas	C	61	56	62	68
South Carolina	C	56	51	62	54
Mississippi	D	42	32	54	35
Colorado	D	44	28	62	30
Idaho	D	50	59	35	68
Montana	D	51	56	42	59
New Jersey	D	47	55	42	42
Delaware	D	48	25	73	31
Wyoming	D	50	32	73	32
Louisiana	F	28	21	35	22
Oregon	F	32	13	54	13
Rhode Island	F	41	36	54	21
Illinois	F	22	19	24	24
South Dakota	F	18	18	16	20
Arkansas	F	23	3	47	4
West Virginia	F	40	34	47	35
Alabama	F	33	16	54	17
Virginia	F	28	45	9	39
Massachusetts	F	32	13	54	18
Oklahoma	F	25	6	47	9
Tennessee	F	31	37	24	38

Methodology

By Ryan McComb·1 min read

If you've ever taken a prediction market number at face value -- say, 62% for a Senate candidate in Iowa -- you've probably been misled. A 62% backed by $400,000 in open interest and a one-cent spread is a fundamentally different signal than a 62% in a market with $800 and a spread you could drive a truck through.

Every day, we pull data from Kalshi and grade every House, Senate, and gubernatorial market on three dimensions: volume (how actively the market trades), spread (how tight the bid-ask gap is), and open interest (how much capital is at stake). These roll up into a single letter grade, A through F.

A -- Deep, active, tight. The price is a genuine signal.
B -- Solid with minor weaknesses. Trustworthy with a grain of salt.
C -- Mediocre. Directionally useful, not gospel.
D -- Thin and unreliable. More decorative than informative.
F -- Essentially no real market. The number is close to meaningless.

This is not a forecast. We're grading the thermometer, not predicting the weather. The table below updates daily.